Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 49.6% vs Spezza 55.7% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 61.1%
Defensive zone
Spezza 90.4%
Neutral zone
Spezza 80.2%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 75.0%
25.0%
75.0%
McDavid
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
4
(14 meetings)
10
4
McDavid
Spezza
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
6
1
McDavid
Spezza
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
McDavid
Spezza
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Spezza
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (621)
57.9% (292)
-8.8%
Power Play
78.6% (14)
62.3% (53)
+16.3%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
52.9% (138)
-52.9%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +52.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. McDavid is 47.8% vs right-shot opponents (182).
McDavid shoots left. Spezza is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (347).
Home / Away
McDavid
Spezza
Home
56.1% (330)
58.4% (238)
Away
42.5% (308)
55.5% (245)
By Period
McDavid
Spezza
P1
49.2%
59.2%
P2
47.4%
54.8%
P3
53.0%
57.4%
Final 5 min
51.3%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.5%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2021 | 2 | 06:10 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 1 | 18:22 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 3, 2021 | 3 | 15:19 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 3, 2021 | 3 | 10:43 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 3, 2021 | 3 | 10:33 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 3, 2021 | 1 | 16:44 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 1, 2021 | 3 | 05:42 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 3 | 17:34 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 1 | 12:34 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 1 | 05:20 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 1 | 02:35 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 1 | 02:27 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 2 | 14:06 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 3 | 17:08 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |