Scouting Report
John Mitchell holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McDavid wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Mitchell shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 42.5% vs Mitchell 49.0% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mitchell 61.5%
Defensive zone
Mitchell 90.0%
Neutral zone
Mitchell 77.4%
Result
John Mitchell favored at 76.8%
23.2%
76.8%
McDavid
Mitchell
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
McDavid
Mitchell
Last 6: McDavid 4-2 Mitchell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Mitchell
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mitchell
0
1
McDavid
Mitchell
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
1
McDavid
Mitchell
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Mitchell
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (578)
52.5% (676)
-11.8%
Power Play
56.3% (16)
55.6% (18)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
32.3% (155)
+17.7%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mitchell shoots left. McDavid is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (363).
McDavid shoots left. Mitchell is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Home / Away
McDavid
Mitchell
Home
42.7% (323)
52.2% (450)
Away
39.5% (281)
45.1% (399)
By Period
McDavid
Mitchell
P1
42.3%
51.2%
P2
37.3%
50.2%
P3
43.4%
44.8%
OT
50.0%
80.0%
Final 5 min
36.8%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
41.2%
Mitchell
66.0%▲
56.5%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2016 | 3 | 07:16 | Neutral | John Mitchell |
| Mar 20, 2016 | 1 | 19:06 | Defensive | John Mitchell |
| Mar 20, 2016 | 1 | 13:34 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 20, 2016 | 1 | 01:15 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 20, 2016 | 3 | 04:00 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 20, 2016 | 3 | 03:49 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |