Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.5% vs 50.4%). Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 49.6% vs Thompson 50.3% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 80.8%
Defensive zone
Thompson 57.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 54.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 61.5%
61.5%
38.5%
McDavid
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
McDavid
Thompson
Last 6: McDavid 2-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Thompson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
3
McDavid
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (621)
49.6% (230)
-0.5%
Power Play
78.6% (14)
50.0% (2)
+28.6%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
53.8% (52)
-53.8%
On penalty kill, Thompson has a +53.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. McDavid is 50.2% vs left-shot opponents (456).
McDavid shoots left. Thompson is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (163).
Home / Away
McDavid
Thompson
Home
56.1% (330)
52.2% (134)
Away
42.5% (308)
48.7% (150)
By Period
McDavid
Thompson
P1
49.2%
54.5%
P2
47.4%
48.0%
P3
53.0%
48.2%
Final 5 min
51.3%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.5%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2021 | 3 | 06:07 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 3 | 06:01 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 3 | 06:28 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 2 | 09:21 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 1 | 09:11 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 1 | 02:52 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |