Scouting Report
Nate Thompson holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Thompson 54.3% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 77.6%
Defensive zone
Thompson 65.7%
Neutral zone
Thompson 50.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
McDavid
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
McDavid
Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Thompson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
McDavid
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
55.5% (236)
-1.2%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
60.0% (5)
-15.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
56.5% (46)
-23.2%
On penalty kill, Thompson has a +23.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. McDavid is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (679).
McDavid shoots left. Thompson is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (199).
Home / Away
McDavid
Thompson
Home
53.6% (507)
53.1% (128)
Away
53.8% (539)
57.9% (159)
By Period
McDavid
Thompson
P1
52.6%
59.0%
P2
54.1%
55.4%
P3
54.9%
52.6%
Final 5 min
52.2%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2021 | 2 | 18:17 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 1 | 08:25 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |