Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.6% vs 48.3%). McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Moore shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Moore 48.9% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Moore 53.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 56.0%
Neutral zone
Moore 50.6%
Result
Oliver Moore favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
McDavid
Moore
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
McDavid
Moore
Last 5: McDavid 2-3 Moore
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Moore
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Moore
0
1
McDavid
Moore
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Moore
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Moore
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
50.3% (187)
-2.8%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
33.3% (15)
+15.3%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
0.0% (3)
+46.5%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +46.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Moore shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Moore is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (141).
Home / Away
McDavid
Moore
Home
50.2% (400)
52.3% (132)
Away
44.7% (365)
41.1% (73)
By Period
McDavid
Moore
P1
47.5%
44.3%
P2
48.6%
54.2%
P3
46.7%
46.5%
OT
33.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Moore
38.0%▼
48.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 18:41 | Offensive | Oliver Moore |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 18:20 | Defensive | Oliver Moore |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 17:38 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:16 | Neutral | Oliver Moore |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 10:51 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |