Scouting Report
Tyson Kozak holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (56% H2H, 9 meetings). McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kozak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Kozak 49.7% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 72.0%
Defensive zone
Kozak 77.8%
Neutral zone
Kozak 55.5%
Result
Tyson Kozak favored at 59.5%
40.5%
59.5%
McDavid
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
McDavid
Kozak
Last 10: McDavid 5-5 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Kozak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
4
McDavid
Kozak
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
49.3% (294)
-1.8%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
60.0% (5)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
50.0% (40)
-3.5%
On power play, Kozak has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Kozak is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (239).
Home / Away
McDavid
Kozak
Home
50.2% (400)
45.5% (145)
Away
44.7% (365)
52.6% (194)
By Period
McDavid
Kozak
P1
47.5%
53.4%
P2
48.6%
50.0%
P3
46.7%
44.3%
Final 5 min
51.3%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 12:48 | Defensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 11:03 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 19:01 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 06:26 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 07:45 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 00:07 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |