Scouting Report
Ryan Hartman holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McMichael wins 35.2% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.2% vs Hartman 47.3% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 70.8%
Defensive zone
McMichael 70.8%
Neutral zone
McMichael 70.8%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 70.8%
70.8%
29.2%
McMichael
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
McMichael
Hartman
Last 5: McMichael 1-4 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
1
McMichael
Hartman
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
1
McMichael
Hartman
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hartman
1
2
McMichael
Hartman
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
43.4% (761)
47.1% (649)
-3.7%
Power Play
40.7% (59)
47.1% (68)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (52)
45.2% (73)
-14.4%
On penalty kill, Hartman has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. McMichael is 35.2% vs right-shot opponents (281).
McMichael shoots left. Hartman is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (608).
Home / Away
McMichael
Hartman
Home
42.1% (444)
46.5% (361)
Away
42.8% (428)
47.3% (429)
By Period
McMichael
Hartman
P1
42.5%
45.1%
P2
41.9%
44.4%
P3
42.5%
50.9%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.7%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.4%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 17:15 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 17:03 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 12:47 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 13:18 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 01:37 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |