Connor McMichael vs Steven Stamkos
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +13.0% FO% edge overall. McMichael wins 39.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.8% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-13.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 87.9%
Defensive zone
McMichael 53.2%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 73.2%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 87.9%
12.1%
87.9%
McMichael
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
McMichael
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
1
0
McMichael
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (399)
56.1% (342)
-13.7%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
53.3% (92)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (96)
62.5% (8)
-21.9%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +21.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. McMichael is 39.3% vs right-shot opponents (183).
McMichael shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
McMichael
Stamkos
Home
43.0% (298)
53.4% (208)
Away
42.5% (252)
57.7% (234)
By Period
McMichael
Stamkos
P1
46.5%
55.6%
P2
41.1%
52.8%
P3
41.3%
59.1%
Final 5 min
44.0%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.7%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 13:22 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |