Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Zary wins 41.0% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zary 42.6% vs Steel 50.2% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zary 77.4%
Defensive zone
Zary 71.2%
Neutral zone
Zary 70.9%
Result
Connor Zary favored at 72.2%
72.2%
27.8%
Zary
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Zary
Steel
Last 5: Zary 1-4 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
1
Zary
Steel
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
1
3
Zary
Steel
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zary
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (447)
50.6% (2,876)
-8.8%
Power Play
36.2% (58)
62.6% (179)
-26.4%
On power play, Steel has a +26.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Zary is 41.0% vs left-shot opponents (290).
Zary shoots left. Steel is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,072).
Home / Away
Zary
Steel
Home
41.3% (293)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
41.0% (212)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
Zary
Steel
P1
40.4%
51.9%
P2
38.6%
49.5%
P3
45.2%
49.6%
OT
0.0%
41.9%
Final 5 min
34.6%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zary
50.0%▲
46.0%
41.2%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 19:27 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 12:01 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 04:14 | Neutral | Connor Zary |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 01:14 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 18:49 | Neutral | Sam Steel |