Scouting Report
Corban Knight holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Knight wins 41.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Knight 51.4% vs Stepan 46.6% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 64.5%
Defensive zone
Stepan 66.2%
Neutral zone
Stepan 66.2%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 65.3%
34.7%
65.3%
Knight
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Knight
Stepan
Last 6: Knight 2-4 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
2
Knight
Stepan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Knight
Stepan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
1
Knight
Stepan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Knight
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (273)
46.5% (10,204)
+6.2%
Power Play
60.0% (5)
48.8% (1,593)
+11.2%
Penalty Kill
27.3% (11)
44.2% (1,368)
-16.9%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Knight is 41.0% vs right-shot opponents (83).
Knight shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Home / Away
Knight
Stepan
Home
52.4% (147)
47.6% (6,608)
Away
51.4% (142)
45.5% (6,573)
By Period
Knight
Stepan
P1
50.5%
47.5%
P2
51.0%
45.6%
P3
54.5%
46.8%
Final 5 min
47.1%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Knight
50.0%▬
49.0%
51.9%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2016 | 3 | 17:57 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 2, 2016 | 3 | 13:54 | Defensive | Corban Knight |
| Jan 2, 2016 | 2 | 12:18 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 2, 2016 | 2 | 12:12 | Offensive | Corban Knight |
| Jan 2, 2016 | 1 | 19:35 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 2, 2016 | 1 | 11:19 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |