Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +19.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Perry 46.6% vs Pavelski 57.8% (-19.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Perry 79.3%
Defensive zone
Perry 72.3%
Neutral zone
Perry 79.3%
Result
Corey Perry favored at 79.3%
79.3%
20.7%
Perry
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Perry
Pavelski
Last 5: Perry 1-4 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
2
Perry
Pavelski
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Perry
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Perry
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
34.6% (26)
57.8% (569)
-23.2%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
60.2% (161)
+6.5%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (18)
59.5% (121)
-15.1%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +23.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Perry is 36.8% vs right-shot opponents (19).
Perry shoots right. Pavelski is 66.1% vs right-shot opponents (183).
Home / Away
Perry
Pavelski
Home
36.4% (22)
61.0% (403)
Away
42.3% (26)
56.6% (461)
By Period
Perry
Pavelski
P1
50.0%
62.9%
P2
43.8%
56.6%
P3
25.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
23.1%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Perry
36.0%▲
30.0%
39.6%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
58.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2012 | 3 | 16:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 28, 2012 | 3 | 00:10 | Offensive | Corey Perry |
| Mar 28, 2012 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 4, 2012 | 2 | 18:58 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 26, 2011 | 1 | 16:14 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |