Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +21.6% FO% edge overall. Perry wins 29.6% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Perry 37.3% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-21.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Perry 80.1%
Defensive zone
Perry 59.5%
Neutral zone
Perry 77.7%
Result
Corey Perry favored at 76.5%
76.5%
23.5%
Perry
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Perry
Pavelski
Last 7: Perry 2-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Perry
Pavelski
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Perry
Pavelski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Perry
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Perry
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
31.1% (196)
53.6% (8,791)
-22.5%
Power Play
35.1% (37)
58.2% (2,122)
-23.1%
Penalty Kill
39.4% (33)
50.9% (1,138)
-11.5%
On power play, Pavelski has a +23.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Perry is 29.6% vs right-shot opponents (98).
Perry shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Home / Away
Perry
Pavelski
Home
31.8% (129)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
33.3% (138)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Perry
Pavelski
P1
34.7%
53.5%
P2
30.2%
55.2%
P3
33.3%
53.9%
OT
0.0%
52.3%
Final 5 min
27.3%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Perry
36.0%▲
30.0%
32.6%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2013 | 2 | 12:04 | Offensive | Corey Perry |
| Mar 27, 2013 | 1 | 15:08 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 28, 2012 | 3 | 16:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 28, 2012 | 3 | 00:10 | Offensive | Corey Perry |
| Mar 28, 2012 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 4, 2012 | 2 | 18:58 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 26, 2011 | 1 | 16:14 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |