Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.4% vs 54.2%). Look for Conroy on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Conroy wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Conroy 52.2% vs Duchene 54.1% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 88.4%
Defensive zone
Duchene 57.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 67.8%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 61.5%
38.5%
61.5%
Conroy
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Conroy
Duchene
Last 5: Conroy 4-1 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Conroy
3
0
Conroy
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Conroy
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Conroy
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
54.8% (124)
53.9% (10,396)
+0.9%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
56.9% (1,665)
+43.1%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (62)
49.1% (468)
-0.7%
On power play, Conroy has a +43.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Conroy is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (156).
Conroy shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Home / Away
Conroy
Duchene
Home
58.7% (92)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
48.5% (97)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Conroy
Duchene
P1
54.9%
54.5%
P2
54.8%
54.5%
P3
49.1%
53.4%
OT
100.0%
56.3%
Final 5 min
56.8%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Conroy
44.0%▼
53.4%
53.4%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2010 | 3 | 04:50 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 9, 2010 | 2 | 12:06 | Defensive | Craig Conroy |
| Nov 9, 2010 | 1 | 03:52 | Defensive | Craig Conroy |
| Nov 9, 2010 | 1 | 02:17 | Defensive | Craig Conroy |
| Nov 9, 2010 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Craig Conroy |