Scouting Report
Jeff Skinner holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Skinner on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Smith wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Skinner shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 41.2% vs Skinner 44.7% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 58.9%
Defensive zone
Smith 75.2%
Neutral zone
Smith 66.7%
Result
Craig Smith favored at 70.1%
70.1%
29.9%
Smith
Skinner
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Smith
Skinner
Last 5: Smith 1-4 Skinner
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Skinner
0
2
Smith
Skinner
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Skinner
1
2
Smith
Skinner
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Skinner
Edge
Even Strength
40.8% (1,023)
42.3% (1,317)
-1.5%
Power Play
39.4% (198)
52.0% (404)
-12.6%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
33.3% (15)
+11.1%
On power play, Skinner has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Skinner shoots left. Smith is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (920).
Smith shoots right. Skinner is 36.7% vs right-shot opponents (643).
Home / Away
Smith
Skinner
Home
42.3% (556)
48.2% (949)
Away
39.1% (675)
39.9% (791)
By Period
Smith
Skinner
P1
39.0%
41.6%
P2
42.1%
46.0%
P3
40.2%
46.4%
OT
75.0%
23.5%
Final 5 min
40.8%
46.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
30.0%▼
44.0%
40.5%
Skinner
44.0%▬
44.5%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2012 | 2 | 08:39 | Defensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Feb 28, 2012 | 1 | 16:49 | Neutral | Jeff Skinner |
| Feb 28, 2012 | 1 | 16:39 | Defensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Feb 28, 2012 | 1 | 05:39 | Neutral | Craig Smith |
| Feb 28, 2012 | 1 | 02:42 | Neutral | Jeff Skinner |