Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Smith wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 41.2% vs Backlund 49.0% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Smith 88.3%
Defensive zone
Backlund 87.8%
Neutral zone
Smith 58.1%
Result
Craig Smith favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Smith
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
9
(16 meetings)
7
9
Smith
Backlund
Last 10: Smith 4-6 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
4
1
Smith
Backlund
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
6
Smith
Backlund
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
3
2
Smith
Backlund
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
40.8% (1,023)
49.7% (13,410)
-8.9%
Power Play
39.4% (198)
51.6% (1,336)
-12.2%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
44.0% (2,446)
+0.4%
On power play, Backlund has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Smith is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (920).
Smith shoots right. Backlund is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (6,244).
Home / Away
Smith
Backlund
Home
42.3% (556)
49.7% (8,565)
Away
39.1% (675)
48.3% (8,632)
By Period
Smith
Backlund
P1
39.0%
48.5%
P2
42.1%
50.3%
P3
40.2%
48.4%
OT
75.0%
44.1%
Final 5 min
40.8%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
30.0%▼
44.0%
40.5%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2019 | 1 | 16:39 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 9, 2018 | 2 | 12:30 | Neutral | Craig Smith |
| Feb 15, 2018 | 2 | 07:10 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 21, 2017 | 2 | 13:57 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 1 | 18:53 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Mar 9, 2016 | 2 | 02:53 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 29, 2015 | 3 | 15:08 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 2 | 00:10 | Neutral | Craig Smith |
| Mar 15, 2013 | 3 | 03:15 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 15, 2013 | 2 | 11:56 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 15, 2013 | 1 | 04:39 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 1, 2012 | 2 | 16:54 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 1, 2012 | 1 | 12:52 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 1 | 02:24 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Nov 29, 2011 | 2 | 16:14 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 29, 2011 | 1 | 18:50 | Neutral | Craig Smith |