Scouting Report
Olli Jokinen holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Smith wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Jokinen shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 41.2% vs Jokinen 46.4% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 50.2%
Defensive zone
Jokinen 93.8%
Neutral zone
Jokinen 69.3%
Result
Olli Jokinen favored at 71.4%
28.6%
71.4%
Smith
Jokinen
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Smith
Jokinen
Last 7: Smith 5-2 Jokinen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
3
0
Smith
Jokinen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jokinen
1
2
Smith
Jokinen
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
1
0
Smith
Jokinen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Jokinen
Edge
Even Strength
40.8% (1,023)
45.8% (3,924)
-5.0%
Power Play
39.4% (198)
50.8% (585)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
42.9% (247)
+1.5%
On power play, Jokinen has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jokinen shoots left. Smith is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (920).
Smith shoots right. Jokinen is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,548).
Home / Away
Smith
Jokinen
Home
42.3% (556)
47.4% (2,345)
Away
39.1% (675)
45.3% (2,443)
By Period
Smith
Jokinen
P1
39.0%
45.6%
P2
42.1%
47.5%
P3
40.2%
45.4%
OT
75.0%
56.1%
Final 5 min
40.8%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
30.0%▼
44.0%
40.5%
Jokinen
38.0%▼
42.5%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2012 | 2 | 13:08 | Defensive | Olli Jokinen |
| Jan 1, 2012 | 2 | 03:55 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 3 | 03:01 | Defensive | Olli Jokinen |
| Nov 29, 2011 | 2 | 18:48 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Nov 29, 2011 | 1 | 11:30 | Defensive | Craig Smith |
| Oct 22, 2011 | 2 | 14:39 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Oct 22, 2011 | 1 | 17:56 | Neutral | Craig Smith |