Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Lazar on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Lazar wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 49.2% vs Spezza 54.7% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Lazar leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 88.5%
Defensive zone
Lazar 58.4%
Neutral zone
Spezza 68.0%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 59.5%
40.5%
59.5%
Lazar
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Lazar
Spezza
Last 10: Lazar 6-4 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
1
0
Lazar
Spezza
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Lazar
Spezza
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lazar
3
2
Lazar
Spezza
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
50.2% (2,658)
54.4% (7,990)
-4.2%
Power Play
52.3% (65)
56.8% (1,726)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (415)
52.7% (643)
-10.8%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Lazar is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (857).
Lazar shoots right. Spezza is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Home / Away
Lazar
Spezza
Home
50.1% (1,542)
56.8% (5,066)
Away
48.2% (1,596)
52.7% (5,332)
By Period
Lazar
Spezza
P1
48.9%
55.7%
P2
48.9%
54.4%
P3
49.5%
54.1%
OT
56.5%
51.5%
Final 5 min
49.9%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
49.1%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 19:50 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 12:49 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 02:58 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 00:15 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 16, 2020 | 3 | 18:02 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 16, 2020 | 3 | 17:52 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 16, 2020 | 3 | 05:05 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 6, 2016 | 1 | 12:54 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |