Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.3% vs 52.9%). Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Joshua wins 55.3% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Joshua 51.4% vs Spezza 52.4% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 59.5%
Defensive zone
Joshua 56.1%
Neutral zone
Joshua 62.0%
Result
Dakota Joshua favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Joshua
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Joshua
Spezza
Last 6: Joshua 2-4 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
3
Joshua
Spezza
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Joshua
2
1
Joshua
Spezza
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Joshua
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (75)
53.7% (451)
-0.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Joshua is 55.3% vs right-shot opponents (38).
Joshua shoots left. Spezza is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (409).
Home / Away
Joshua
Spezza
Home
47.7% (44)
55.0% (282)
Away
61.3% (31)
50.8% (295)
By Period
Joshua
Spezza
P1
61.5%
53.1%
P2
48.1%
53.2%
P3
50.0%
52.3%
Final 5 min
52.4%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Joshua
34.0%▼
47.5%
53.3%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 01:30 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 15:38 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 08:18 | Neutral | Dakota Joshua |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 05:25 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 05:20 | Neutral | Dakota Joshua |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 02:39 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |