Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Dvorsky on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorsky 46.9% vs Duchene 51.6% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 64.2%
Defensive zone
Duchene 65.4%
Neutral zone
Dvorsky 51.7%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 59.6%
40.4%
59.6%
Dvorsky
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Dvorsky
Duchene
Last 9: Dvorsky 5-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Dvorsky
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorsky
3
2
Dvorsky
Duchene
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dvorsky
2
1
Dvorsky
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorsky
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
47.1% (514)
51.2% (324)
-4.1%
Power Play
41.7% (72)
60.4% (53)
-18.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
16.7% (6)
+33.3%
On penalty kill, Dvorsky has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Dvorsky is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Dvorsky shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Home / Away
Dvorsky
Duchene
Home
46.6% (264)
51.6% (182)
Away
46.3% (324)
52.2% (201)
By Period
Dvorsky
Duchene
P1
48.3%
49.6%
P2
44.7%
56.2%
P3
46.3%
48.6%
Final 5 min
42.5%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorsky
36.0%▼
42.5%
46.4%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 17:30 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 17:21 | Defensive | Dalibor Dvorsky |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 13:17 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 09:00 | Defensive | Dalibor Dvorsky |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 02:38 | Defensive | Dalibor Dvorsky |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 03:20 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 11:02 | Neutral | Dalibor Dvorsky |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 10:51 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 04:04 | Neutral | Dalibor Dvorsky |