Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorsky 46.9% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dvorsky 72.5%
Defensive zone
Dvorsky 76.8%
Neutral zone
Dvorsky 73.2%
Result
Dalibor Dvorsky favored at 75.0%
75.0%
25.0%
Dvorsky
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Dvorsky
O'Reilly
Last 8: Dvorsky 2-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Dvorsky
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Dvorsky
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorsky
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.1% (514)
55.4% (826)
-8.3%
Power Play
41.7% (72)
57.9% (221)
-16.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
50.4% (129)
-0.4%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Dvorsky is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Dvorsky shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Dvorsky
O'Reilly
Home
46.6% (264)
55.8% (579)
Away
46.3% (324)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Dvorsky
O'Reilly
P1
48.3%
57.7%
P2
44.7%
54.8%
P3
46.3%
54.3%
Final 5 min
42.5%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorsky
36.0%▼
42.5%
46.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 06:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 15:20 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dalibor Dvorsky |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 18:45 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 14:54 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 09:58 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 1 | 17:10 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:56 | Neutral | Dalibor Dvorsky |