Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorsky 46.9% vs Hertl 57.2% (-11.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 80.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 66.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 62.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 71.1%
28.9%
71.1%
Dvorsky
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Dvorsky
Hertl
Last 5: Dvorsky 3-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dvorsky
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorsky
2
0
Dvorsky
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Dvorsky
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorsky
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.1% (514)
58.1% (823)
-11.0%
Power Play
41.7% (72)
56.2% (265)
-14.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
62.9% (35)
-12.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dvorsky is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Dvorsky shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Dvorsky
Hertl
Home
46.6% (264)
59.7% (561)
Away
46.3% (324)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Dvorsky
Hertl
P1
48.3%
51.6%
P2
44.7%
63.8%
P3
46.3%
58.6%
Final 5 min
42.5%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorsky
36.0%▼
42.5%
46.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 16:37 | Offensive | Dalibor Dvorsky |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:53 | Defensive | Dalibor Dvorsky |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 11:14 | Defensive | Dalibor Dvorsky |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 10:12 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |