Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorsky 47.0% vs Hertl 54.2% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 70.0%
Defensive zone
Hertl 82.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 64.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 73.8%
26.2%
73.8%
Dvorsky
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Dvorsky
Hertl
Last 5: Dvorsky 3-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dvorsky
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorsky
2
0
Dvorsky
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Dvorsky
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorsky
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.1% (520)
53.8% (8,268)
-6.7%
Power Play
41.7% (72)
59.3% (1,975)
-17.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
46.3% (806)
+3.7%
On power play, Hertl has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dvorsky is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (388).
Dvorsky shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Dvorsky
Hertl
Home
46.5% (269)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
46.5% (325)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Dvorsky
Hertl
P1
47.8%
53.6%
P2
44.7%
54.1%
P3
46.9%
55.3%
Final 5 min
43.0%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorsky
36.0%▼
42.5%
46.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 16:37 | Offensive | Dalibor Dvorsky |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:53 | Defensive | Dalibor Dvorsky |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 11:14 | Defensive | Dalibor Dvorsky |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 10:12 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |