Scouting Report
Mitch Marner holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Marner on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Yurov wins 38.1% vs right-shot opponents — Marner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Yurov 40.6% vs Marner 43.1% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Yurov 58.5%
Defensive zone
Yurov 65.4%
Neutral zone
Yurov 62.9%
Result
Danila Yurov favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
Yurov
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Yurov
Marner
Last 9: Yurov 2-7 Marner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
0
5
Yurov
Marner
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Yurov
Marner
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Yurov
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
39.6% (621)
41.5% (282)
-1.9%
Power Play
27.8% (18)
40.0% (5)
-12.2%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (8)
25.0% (12)
+0.0%
On power play, Marner has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. Yurov is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (223).
Yurov shoots left. Marner is 40.9% vs left-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
Yurov
Marner
Home
43.1% (332)
36.1% (158)
Away
34.9% (315)
46.1% (141)
By Period
Yurov
Marner
P1
37.5%
41.6%
P2
38.1%
40.2%
P3
41.9%
40.5%
Final 5 min
40.6%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Yurov
44.0%▲
38.5%
39.1%
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 02:01 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 01:51 | Neutral | Danila Yurov |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 14:48 | Neutral | Danila Yurov |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 07:56 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 08:37 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:52 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:26 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 01:20 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 01:56 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |