Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Yurov wins 38.1% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Yurov 40.6% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-12.4%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Yurov 85.3%
Defensive zone
Yurov 82.1%
Neutral zone
Yurov 82.2%
Result
Danila Yurov favored at 84.0%
84.0%
16.0%
Yurov
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Yurov
MacKinnon
Last 10: Yurov 2-8 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
4
Yurov
MacKinnon
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
4
Yurov
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Yurov
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
39.6% (621)
50.0% (992)
-10.4%
Power Play
27.8% (18)
64.9% (148)
-37.1%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (8)
34.4% (32)
-9.4%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +37.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Yurov is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (223).
Yurov shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Yurov
MacKinnon
Home
43.1% (332)
53.3% (591)
Away
34.9% (315)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Yurov
MacKinnon
P1
37.5%
49.9%
P2
38.1%
53.2%
P3
41.9%
50.8%
Final 5 min
40.6%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Yurov
44.0%▲
38.5%
39.1%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 04:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 02:28 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 18:21 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 06:34 | Offensive | Danila Yurov |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 06:27 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 19:55 | Offensive | Danila Yurov |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 06:37 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:45 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:37 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 14:46 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |