Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hodgson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Hodgson wins 45.7% vs right-shot opponents — Backes shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hodgson 47.1% vs Backes 51.6% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 63.8%
Defensive zone
Backes 80.2%
Neutral zone
Backes 73.4%
Result
David Backes favored at 71.6%
28.4%
71.6%
Hodgson
Backes
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Hodgson
Backes
Last 7: Hodgson 5-2 Backes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hodgson
Backes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
0
1
Hodgson
Backes
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hodgson
4
0
Hodgson
Backes
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hodgson
Backes
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (713)
51.3% (861)
-4.9%
Power Play
47.6% (210)
50.0% (176)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (46)
55.5% (164)
-7.7%
On penalty kill, Backes has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backes shoots right. Hodgson is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (346).
Hodgson shoots right. Backes is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Hodgson
Backes
Home
48.8% (490)
53.3% (599)
Away
44.7% (479)
50.2% (602)
By Period
Hodgson
Backes
P1
46.6%
53.5%
P2
51.2%
50.3%
P3
42.4%
51.5%
OT
44.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.9%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hodgson
48.0%▲
44.5%
46.7%
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2014 | 3 | 19:04 | Neutral | Cody Hodgson |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 3 | 07:34 | Neutral | Cody Hodgson |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 3 | 04:38 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 2 | 09:25 | Neutral | Cody Hodgson |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 2 | 09:15 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 1 | 12:39 | Offensive | Cody Hodgson |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 1 | 00:10 | Neutral | Cody Hodgson |