Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Backes wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — MacKenzie shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 44.9% vs MacKenzie 51.7% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
MacKenzie leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Backes 69.8%
Defensive zone
Backes 67.1%
Neutral zone
Backes 67.5%
Result
David Backes favored at 67.6%
67.6%
32.4%
Backes
MacKenzie
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Backes
MacKenzie
Last 10: Backes 3-7 MacKenzie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
0
1
Backes
MacKenzie
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
1
2
Backes
MacKenzie
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
2
4
Backes
MacKenzie
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
MacKenzie
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (819)
51.8% (384)
-6.5%
Power Play
42.1% (190)
50.0% (24)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (111)
52.5% (61)
-12.0%
On penalty kill, MacKenzie has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKenzie shoots left. Backes is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (907).
Backes shoots right. MacKenzie is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (150).
Home / Away
Backes
MacKenzie
Home
42.9% (581)
51.7% (232)
Away
46.1% (557)
52.3% (241)
By Period
Backes
MacKenzie
P1
40.1%
47.9%
P2
47.3%
51.8%
P3
45.1%
55.4%
OT
57.1%
100.0%
Final 5 min
40.5%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
44.5%
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2011 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 9, 2011 | 1 | 05:07 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 7, 2011 | 3 | 05:13 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 7, 2011 | 2 | 06:53 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 7, 2011 | 1 | 12:42 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Mar 7, 2011 | 1 | 01:24 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Nov 10, 2010 | 3 | 16:40 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 10, 2010 | 3 | 03:34 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 10, 2010 | 2 | 13:58 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Nov 10, 2010 | 2 | 13:37 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |