Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Backes on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 52.1% vs MacKenzie 57.2% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 60.7%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 60.5%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 60.0%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 56.8%
43.2%
56.8%
Backes
MacKenzie
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Backes
MacKenzie
Last 6: Backes 3-3 MacKenzie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backes
1
0
Backes
MacKenzie
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
2
1
Backes
MacKenzie
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
0
2
Backes
MacKenzie
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
MacKenzie
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (726)
61.0% (264)
-6.6%
Power Play
47.8% (92)
100.0% (4)
-52.2%
Penalty Kill
40.4% (94)
49.1% (55)
-8.7%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +52.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKenzie shoots left. Backes is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Backes shoots right. MacKenzie is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (89).
Home / Away
Backes
MacKenzie
Home
50.8% (447)
62.1% (145)
Away
53.8% (465)
57.3% (178)
By Period
Backes
MacKenzie
P1
51.8%
51.6%
P2
53.2%
59.8%
P3
52.8%
65.8%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.8%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
59.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2013 | 3 | 04:46 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Apr 12, 2013 | 3 | 01:29 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Apr 12, 2013 | 1 | 01:38 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 2 | 18:57 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 2 | 17:42 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 2 | 17:33 | Offensive | David Backes |