Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Backes on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Backes wins 54.1% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 51.6% vs Spezza 53.7% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 75.4%
Defensive zone
Backes 53.3%
Neutral zone
Spezza 57.8%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Backes
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Backes
Spezza
Last 9: Backes 6-3 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
5
0
Backes
Spezza
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
3
Backes
Spezza
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (861)
53.9% (1,097)
-2.6%
Power Play
50.0% (176)
54.8% (250)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
55.5% (164)
52.8% (89)
+2.7%
On power play, Spezza has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Backes is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (353).
Backes shoots right. Spezza is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (416).
Home / Away
Backes
Spezza
Home
53.3% (599)
55.8% (695)
Away
50.2% (602)
52.2% (741)
By Period
Backes
Spezza
P1
53.5%
50.3%
P2
50.3%
54.7%
P3
51.5%
56.0%
OT
50.0%
73.7%
Final 5 min
54.7%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
51.7%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2014 | 3 | 17:57 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Feb 4, 2014 | 3 | 11:26 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Feb 4, 2014 | 3 | 05:28 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 4, 2014 | 3 | 00:11 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Feb 4, 2014 | 2 | 14:11 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 4, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 4, 2014 | 1 | 15:01 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Dec 16, 2013 | 2 | 15:19 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Dec 16, 2013 | 1 | 06:55 | Defensive | David Backes |