Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Backes on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 23 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 50.7% vs Spezza 54.7% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Backes leads 31-24 in 55 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 84.7%
Defensive zone
Spezza 53.8%
Neutral zone
Spezza 66.8%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 64.6%
35.4%
64.6%
Backes
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
31
-
24
(55 meetings)
31
24
Backes
Spezza
Last 10: Backes 8-2 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
9
Backes
Spezza
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
19
4
Backes
Spezza
23 total
Neutral Zone
Even
11
11
Backes
Spezza
22 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (5,772)
54.4% (7,990)
-3.3%
Power Play
50.8% (1,082)
56.8% (1,726)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (930)
52.7% (643)
-5.3%
On power play, Spezza has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Backes is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,127).
Backes shoots right. Spezza is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Home / Away
Backes
Spezza
Home
50.6% (3,936)
56.8% (5,066)
Away
50.7% (3,895)
52.7% (5,332)
By Period
Backes
Spezza
P1
50.1%
55.7%
P2
51.5%
54.4%
P3
50.8%
54.1%
OT
42.9%
51.5%
Final 5 min
51.9%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
50.7%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2020 | 3 | 10:20 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Nov 16, 2018 | 2 | 10:55 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 3 | 09:50 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 2 | 06:24 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 1 | 19:12 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 1 | 07:03 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Dec 27, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 27, 2015 | 2 | 19:28 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Dec 27, 2015 | 2 | 17:43 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 27, 2015 | 2 | 15:05 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 27, 2015 | 2 | 13:14 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 27, 2015 | 2 | 10:09 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 27, 2015 | 2 | 04:05 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Dec 27, 2015 | 2 | 04:02 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 27, 2015 | 1 | 15:33 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Dec 26, 2015 | 3 | 10:51 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 12, 2015 | 2 | 10:26 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 3 | 17:25 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 2 | 13:21 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 2 | 13:14 | Defensive | David Backes |