Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Backes wins 45.4% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 48.7% vs Carter 50.7% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 52.9%
Defensive zone
Backes 70.9%
Neutral zone
Backes 60.6%
Result
David Backes favored at 56.9%
56.9%
43.1%
Backes
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Backes
Carter
Last 9: Backes 3-6 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Backes
Carter
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
2
Backes
Carter
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
1
2
Backes
Carter
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (967)
51.0% (565)
-1.9%
Power Play
48.1% (189)
50.0% (188)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (168)
50.0% (12)
-4.8%
On penalty kill, Carter has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Backes is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Backes shoots right. Carter is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (265).
Home / Away
Backes
Carter
Home
48.1% (690)
52.3% (421)
Away
49.2% (663)
49.0% (353)
By Period
Backes
Carter
P1
49.0%
55.4%
P2
50.2%
49.1%
P3
47.5%
47.6%
OT
33.3%
58.8%
Final 5 min
46.7%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
48.6%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2012 | 3 | 11:38 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Feb 14, 2012 | 2 | 10:20 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 18, 2011 | 3 | 00:34 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 18, 2011 | 2 | 13:25 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 18, 2011 | 2 | 00:42 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 18, 2011 | 1 | 01:01 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 27, 2011 | 3 | 19:30 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 27, 2011 | 3 | 12:45 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 27, 2011 | 2 | 01:36 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |