Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.7% vs 52.2%). Backes wins 54.1% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 51.6% vs Carter 51.9% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 67.4%
Defensive zone
Backes 62.5%
Neutral zone
Carter 59.4%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 62.1%
37.9%
62.1%
Backes
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Backes
Carter
Last 6: Backes 4-2 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backes
2
0
Backes
Carter
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Backes
Carter
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (861)
52.0% (471)
-0.7%
Power Play
50.0% (176)
55.3% (132)
-5.3%
Penalty Kill
55.5% (164)
43.9% (41)
+11.6%
On penalty kill, Backes has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Backes is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (353).
Backes shoots right. Carter is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Home / Away
Backes
Carter
Home
53.3% (599)
53.6% (330)
Away
50.2% (602)
50.6% (314)
By Period
Backes
Carter
P1
53.5%
50.0%
P2
50.3%
55.6%
P3
51.5%
50.3%
OT
50.0%
59.1%
Final 5 min
54.7%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
51.7%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 16, 2014 | 2 | 18:46 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Jan 16, 2014 | 1 | 17:23 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 16, 2014 | 1 | 02:31 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 2, 2013 | 3 | 02:27 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 2, 2013 | 1 | 13:24 | Offensive | David Backes |