Scouting Report
Joel Ward holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Ward on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Backes wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — Ward shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 44.9% vs Ward 49.3% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 55.2%
Defensive zone
Ward 54.6%
Neutral zone
Backes 54.6%
Result
Joel Ward favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
Backes
Ward
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Backes
Ward
Last 6: Backes 3-3 Ward
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backes
1
0
Backes
Ward
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ward
2
3
Backes
Ward
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Ward
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (819)
51.0% (96)
-5.7%
Power Play
42.1% (190)
57.1% (35)
-15.0%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (111)
36.1% (36)
+4.4%
On power play, Ward has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ward shoots right. Backes is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (231).
Backes shoots right. Ward is 48.6% vs right-shot opponents (37).
Home / Away
Backes
Ward
Home
42.9% (581)
48.6% (74)
Away
46.1% (557)
48.9% (94)
By Period
Backes
Ward
P1
40.1%
43.4%
P2
47.3%
56.9%
P3
45.1%
46.4%
OT
57.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
40.5%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
44.5%
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26, 2010 | 1 | 16:10 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Nov 24, 2010 | 1 | 07:44 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Oct 28, 2010 | 2 | 15:20 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 3 | 00:46 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 1 | 09:26 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 1 | 07:03 | Defensive | Joel Ward |