Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Ward on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 50.7% vs Ward 48.4% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 51.6%
Defensive zone
Ward 53.3%
Neutral zone
Ward 53.5%
Result
Joel Ward favored at 52.4%
47.6%
52.4%
Backes
Ward
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Backes
Ward
Last 6: Backes 3-3 Ward
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backes
1
0
Backes
Ward
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ward
2
3
Backes
Ward
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Ward
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (5,772)
51.3% (1,186)
-0.2%
Power Play
50.8% (1,082)
53.4% (238)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (930)
35.5% (366)
+11.9%
On penalty kill, Backes has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ward shoots right. Backes is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,127).
Backes shoots right. Ward is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Home / Away
Backes
Ward
Home
50.6% (3,936)
50.3% (870)
Away
50.7% (3,895)
46.5% (921)
By Period
Backes
Ward
P1
50.1%
47.6%
P2
51.5%
47.5%
P3
50.8%
50.3%
OT
42.9%
30.8%
Final 5 min
51.9%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
50.7%
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26, 2010 | 1 | 16:10 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Nov 24, 2010 | 1 | 07:44 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Oct 28, 2010 | 2 | 15:20 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 3 | 00:46 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 1 | 09:26 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 1 | 07:03 | Defensive | Joel Ward |