Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Backes wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 54.2% vs Duchene 52.0% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 12-6 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 59.0%
Defensive zone
Duchene 60.7%
Neutral zone
Duchene 57.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 59.3%
40.7%
59.3%
Backes
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
12
(18 meetings)
6
12
Backes
Duchene
Last 10: Backes 3-7 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
3
Backes
Duchene
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Backes
Duchene
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
5
Backes
Duchene
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (822)
52.6% (1,081)
+1.9%
Power Play
58.9% (141)
49.6% (119)
+9.3%
Penalty Kill
51.5% (167)
41.2% (17)
+10.3%
On penalty kill, Backes has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Backes is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Backes shoots right. Duchene is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (473).
Home / Away
Backes
Duchene
Home
55.3% (524)
54.9% (625)
Away
54.0% (606)
49.3% (592)
By Period
Backes
Duchene
P1
53.2%
52.7%
P2
54.2%
54.1%
P3
57.1%
49.5%
OT
44.4%
57.1%
Final 5 min
60.2%
46.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
54.6%
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2015 | 3 | 19:49 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 19, 2015 | 3 | 13:29 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 19, 2015 | 2 | 18:35 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 19, 2015 | 1 | 03:26 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Dec 29, 2014 | 1 | 19:27 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 23, 2014 | 2 | 17:58 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Dec 23, 2014 | 2 | 05:49 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 23, 2014 | 1 | 03:33 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 13, 2014 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 3 | 19:46 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 3 | 18:14 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 3 | 15:37 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 2 | 13:02 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 2 | 03:31 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 2 | 01:13 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 1 | 08:29 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |