Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 25 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 50.7% vs Duchene 54.1% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 38-34 in 72 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 60.9%
Defensive zone
Backes 64.0%
Neutral zone
Backes 51.6%
Result
David Backes favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Backes
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
34
-
38
(72 meetings)
34
38
Backes
Duchene
Last 10: Backes 4-6 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
9
16
Backes
Duchene
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
12
11
Backes
Duchene
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
13
11
Backes
Duchene
24 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (5,772)
53.9% (10,396)
-2.8%
Power Play
50.8% (1,082)
56.9% (1,665)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (930)
49.1% (468)
-1.7%
On power play, Duchene has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Backes is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,704).
Backes shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Home / Away
Backes
Duchene
Home
50.6% (3,936)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
50.7% (3,895)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Backes
Duchene
P1
50.1%
54.5%
P2
51.5%
54.5%
P3
50.8%
53.4%
OT
42.9%
56.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
50.7%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2019 | 1 | 14:09 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 3 | 07:07 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Apr 3, 2016 | 2 | 14:43 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 3, 2016 | 1 | 13:04 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Jan 22, 2016 | 3 | 14:28 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 22, 2016 | 3 | 12:51 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 22, 2016 | 2 | 18:36 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 22, 2016 | 2 | 02:03 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Jan 6, 2016 | 2 | 10:12 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 13, 2015 | 3 | 12:01 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 13, 2015 | 3 | 00:11 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 13, 2015 | 2 | 02:58 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 13, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 13, 2015 | 1 | 09:10 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Jan 19, 2015 | 3 | 19:49 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 19, 2015 | 3 | 13:29 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 19, 2015 | 2 | 18:35 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 19, 2015 | 1 | 03:26 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Dec 29, 2014 | 1 | 19:27 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 23, 2014 | 2 | 17:58 | Defensive | David Backes |