Scouting Report
Nick Spaling holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Spaling on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Backes wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Spaling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 44.9% vs Spaling 50.8% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 78.2%
Defensive zone
Backes 50.4%
Neutral zone
Backes 64.9%
Result
David Backes favored at 62.8%
62.8%
37.2%
Backes
Spaling
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Backes
Spaling
Last 9: Backes 3-6 Spaling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Backes
Spaling
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spaling
1
4
Backes
Spaling
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Spaling
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (819)
51.6% (353)
-6.3%
Power Play
42.1% (190)
50.0% (8)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (111)
49.3% (136)
-8.8%
On penalty kill, Spaling has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spaling shoots left. Backes is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (907).
Backes shoots right. Spaling is 48.8% vs right-shot opponents (166).
Home / Away
Backes
Spaling
Home
42.9% (581)
49.2% (260)
Away
46.1% (557)
52.7% (237)
By Period
Backes
Spaling
P1
40.1%
55.2%
P2
47.3%
49.7%
P3
45.1%
47.7%
OT
57.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
40.5%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
44.5%
Spaling
58.0%▲
53.0%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2011 | 2 | 18:59 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 2 | 16:59 | Offensive | Nick Spaling |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 2 | 16:44 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Nov 24, 2010 | 3 | 19:08 | Offensive | Nick Spaling |
| Nov 24, 2010 | 1 | 10:15 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Nov 11, 2010 | 2 | 10:28 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Nov 11, 2010 | 1 | 11:52 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Oct 28, 2010 | 3 | 13:11 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Oct 28, 2010 | 2 | 10:52 | Offensive | David Backes |