Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +14.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Jokinen on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Backes wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Jokinen shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 54.2% vs Jokinen 42.8% (+14.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 79.5%
Defensive zone
Backes 89.2%
Neutral zone
Backes 85.6%
Result
David Backes favored at 83.1%
83.1%
16.9%
Backes
Jokinen
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Backes
Jokinen
Last 6: Backes 4-2 Jokinen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jokinen
1
2
Backes
Jokinen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
1
0
Backes
Jokinen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
2
0
Backes
Jokinen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Jokinen
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (822)
40.4% (275)
+14.1%
Power Play
58.9% (141)
50.0% (14)
+8.9%
Penalty Kill
51.5% (167)
39.0% (41)
+12.5%
On even strength, Backes has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jokinen shoots left. Backes is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Backes shoots right. Jokinen is 35.6% vs right-shot opponents (149).
Home / Away
Backes
Jokinen
Home
55.3% (524)
37.9% (145)
Away
54.0% (606)
42.7% (185)
By Period
Backes
Jokinen
P1
53.2%
48.2%
P2
54.2%
38.5%
P3
57.1%
34.7%
OT
44.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
60.2%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
54.6%
Jokinen
38.0%▼
42.5%
40.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2014 | 2 | 17:46 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 4, 2014 | 2 | 01:25 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 1 | 19:10 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Nov 8, 2014 | 3 | 04:11 | Offensive | Olli Jokinen |
| Nov 8, 2014 | 2 | 16:56 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Nov 8, 2014 | 1 | 09:38 | Offensive | Olli Jokinen |