Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Backes on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Backes wins 45.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 48.7% vs Stamkos 45.8% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 59.7%
Defensive zone
Backes 83.5%
Neutral zone
Backes 74.3%
Result
David Backes favored at 76.4%
76.4%
23.6%
Backes
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Backes
Stamkos
Last 6: Backes 5-1 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Backes
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
3
0
Backes
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
2
0
Backes
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (967)
45.6% (1,055)
+3.5%
Power Play
48.1% (189)
46.6% (116)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (168)
42.1% (38)
+3.1%
On even strength, Backes has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Backes is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Backes shoots right. Stamkos is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (337).
Home / Away
Backes
Stamkos
Home
48.1% (690)
48.4% (636)
Away
49.2% (663)
42.3% (591)
By Period
Backes
Stamkos
P1
49.0%
45.7%
P2
50.2%
46.8%
P3
47.5%
43.7%
OT
33.3%
48.0%
Final 5 min
46.7%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
48.6%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2012 | 1 | 16:24 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Mar 17, 2012 | 1 | 16:10 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Mar 17, 2012 | 1 | 13:08 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Mar 17, 2012 | 1 | 02:57 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 17, 2012 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Nov 12, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | David Backes |