Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.7% vs 51.0%). Look for Backes on neutral-zone draws (85% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 50.7% vs Stamkos 51.0% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Backes leads 24-9 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 73.2%
Defensive zone
Backes 51.5%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 59.1%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 58.7%
41.3%
58.7%
Backes
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
9
(33 meetings)
24
9
Backes
Stamkos
Last 10: Backes 8-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Backes
Stamkos
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
9
3
Backes
Stamkos
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
11
2
Backes
Stamkos
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (5,772)
50.4% (9,799)
+0.7%
Power Play
50.8% (1,082)
55.1% (1,725)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (930)
49.7% (825)
-2.3%
On power play, Stamkos has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Backes is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,127).
Backes shoots right. Stamkos is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (3,597).
Home / Away
Backes
Stamkos
Home
50.6% (3,936)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
50.7% (3,895)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Backes
Stamkos
P1
50.1%
49.1%
P2
51.5%
52.7%
P3
50.8%
50.9%
OT
42.9%
54.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
50.7%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2019 | 3 | 17:27 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 6, 2019 | 3 | 17:04 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 6, 2018 | 3 | 03:49 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 6, 2018 | 2 | 07:04 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Mar 29, 2018 | 1 | 10:07 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 29, 2018 | 1 | 10:00 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Nov 29, 2017 | 1 | 03:23 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Feb 14, 2016 | 3 | 13:00 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 3 | 08:16 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 2 | 12:28 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 1 | 06:50 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 3 | 06:31 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 2 | 16:04 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 1 | 14:00 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 1 | 04:47 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 3, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Feb 3, 2015 | 2 | 10:25 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 3, 2015 | 2 | 10:18 | Defensive | David Backes |