Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (39.3% vs 38.5%). Mercer wins 40.0% vs right-shot opponents — Brown shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 40.0% vs Brown 41.5% (+0.8%)
Offensive zone
Mercer 63.2%
Defensive zone
Brown 56.4%
Neutral zone
Mercer 50.6%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Mercer
Brown
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Brown
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,403)
37.4% (198)
+1.7%
Power Play
41.3% (80)
46.9% (49)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
40.9% (44)
33.3% (39)
+7.6%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brown shoots right. Mercer is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Mercer shoots right. Brown is 40.5% vs right-shot opponents (74).
Home / Away
Mercer
Brown
Home
40.0% (737)
38.6% (145)
Away
38.6% (790)
38.3% (141)
By Period
Mercer
Brown
P1
38.0%
34.3%
P2
39.3%
37.6%
P3
41.3%
45.5%
Final 5 min
39.0%
36.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
39.3%
Brown
28.0%▼
36.0%
38.5%