Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (39.2% vs 38.5%). Mercer wins 39.9% vs right-shot opponents — Brown shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Brown 41.5% (+0.7%)
Offensive zone
Mercer 63.2%
Defensive zone
Brown 57.9%
Neutral zone
Mercer 50.6%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Mercer
Brown
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Brown
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
37.4% (198)
+1.7%
Power Play
40.2% (92)
46.9% (49)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
41.3% (46)
33.3% (39)
+8.0%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brown shoots right. Mercer is 39.9% vs right-shot opponents (449).
Mercer shoots right. Brown is 40.5% vs right-shot opponents (74).
Home / Away
Mercer
Brown
Home
40.0% (758)
38.6% (145)
Away
38.5% (792)
38.3% (141)
By Period
Mercer
Brown
P1
38.1%
34.3%
P2
39.1%
37.6%
P3
41.2%
45.5%
Final 5 min
39.6%
36.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
32.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Brown
28.0%▼
36.0%
38.5%