Scouting Report
Dylan Strome holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Strome on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Mercer wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Strome shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Strome 51.6% (-12.4%)
H2H factor
Strome leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Mercer 56.1%
Defensive zone
Mercer 67.4%
Neutral zone
Mercer 64.2%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 61.1%
61.1%
38.9%
Mercer
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Mercer
Strome
Last 10: Mercer 4-6 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Strome
2
3
Mercer
Strome
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
2
1
Mercer
Strome
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Strome
0
2
Mercer
Strome
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
50.1% (6,337)
-11.0%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
58.4% (1,519)
-17.3%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (45)
45.6% (68)
-5.6%
On power play, Strome has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots left. Mercer is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,099).
Mercer shoots right. Strome is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,655).
Home / Away
Mercer
Strome
Home
40.0% (755)
51.1% (3,968)
Away
38.5% (792)
52.2% (3,956)
By Period
Mercer
Strome
P1
38.2%
50.4%
P2
39.2%
52.1%
P3
41.1%
52.3%
OT
0.0%
52.8%
Final 5 min
39.6%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Strome
44.0%▼
55.0%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 06:07 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 03:20 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 18:57 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 15:15 | Defensive | Dylan Strome |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 10:41 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 07:13 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 2 | 19:31 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 2 | 19:23 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 1 | 15:17 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 1 | 09:56 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |