Scouting Report
Dawson Mercer holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 39.7% vs right-shot opponents — Hayes shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Hayes 40.2% (+3.1%)
Offensive zone
Hayes 53.7%
Defensive zone
Mercer 58.9%
Neutral zone
Mercer 51.4%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
Mercer
Hayes
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
36.1% (202)
+3.0%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
34.3% (35)
+6.8%
On power play, Mercer has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots right. Mercer is 39.7% vs right-shot opponents (448).
Mercer shoots right. Hayes is 39.2% vs right-shot opponents (79).
Home / Away
Mercer
Hayes
Home
40.0% (755)
34.7% (124)
Away
38.5% (792)
37.7% (114)
By Period
Mercer
Hayes
P1
38.2%
38.6%
P2
39.2%
26.5%
P3
41.1%
43.5%
Final 5 min
39.6%
30.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Hayes
28.0%▼
35.5%
36.1%