Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 36.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.8% vs Kuraly 50.1% (-11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 60.5%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 94.1%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 73.1%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 94.1%
5.9%
94.1%
Mercer
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Mercer
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
51.8% (444)
-13.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
45.3% (150)
+4.7%
On even strength, Kuraly has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Mercer shoots right. Kuraly is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (226).
Home / Away
Mercer
Kuraly
Home
34.7% (144)
54.6% (304)
Away
43.2% (146)
45.5% (290)
By Period
Mercer
Kuraly
P1
32.7%
55.2%
P2
42.7%
45.7%
P3
42.2%
49.5%
Final 5 min
39.2%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.0%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 05:35 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |