Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings). Mercer wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Kuraly 50.3% (-11.1%)
H2H factor
Kuraly leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Mercer 94.4%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 58.5%
Neutral zone
Mercer 69.9%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 50.7%
50.7%
49.3%
Mercer
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
9
(15 meetings)
6
9
Mercer
Kuraly
Last 10: Mercer 5-5 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Kuraly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
3
8
Mercer
Kuraly
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
2
1
Mercer
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
51.5% (5,141)
-12.4%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
56.0% (100)
-14.9%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (45)
44.2% (1,086)
-4.2%
On power play, Kuraly has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Mercer is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,099).
Mercer shoots right. Kuraly is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,226).
Home / Away
Mercer
Kuraly
Home
40.0% (755)
51.9% (3,187)
Away
38.5% (792)
48.7% (3,141)
By Period
Mercer
Kuraly
P1
38.2%
51.1%
P2
39.2%
49.9%
P3
41.1%
50.0%
OT
0.0%
52.3%
Final 5 min
39.6%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 05:35 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 2 | 12:26 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 2 | 09:31 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 03:16 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 16:21 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 05:07 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 03:53 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 10:16 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 1, 2022 | 3 | 10:26 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 1, 2022 | 2 | 02:42 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 1 | 08:49 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 04:51 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 2 | 16:35 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 31, 2021 | 2 | 08:37 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 31, 2021 | 1 | 04:49 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |