Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 46.3% vs Aho 53.8% (-9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 60.7%
Defensive zone
Mercer 63.5%
Neutral zone
Mercer 68.5%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 62.1%
62.1%
37.9%
Mercer
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Mercer
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
Mercer
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Mercer
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (241)
51.2% (785)
-7.6%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
63.8% (213)
-13.8%
Penalty Kill
70.0% (10)
57.9% (57)
+12.1%
On power play, Aho has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Mercer is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (201).
Mercer shoots right. Aho is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (406).
Home / Away
Mercer
Aho
Home
41.7% (120)
54.9% (548)
Away
47.6% (145)
53.3% (507)
By Period
Mercer
Aho
P1
44.6%
52.8%
P2
45.4%
58.9%
P3
45.2%
50.6%
OT
0.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
44.9%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 14:48 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 2 | 10:47 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 1 | 07:37 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 1 | 03:23 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |