Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +18.8% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 36.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.8% vs Hertl 57.2% (-18.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 54.1%
Defensive zone
Mercer 67.8%
Neutral zone
Mercer 72.2%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 67.8%
67.8%
32.2%
Mercer
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Mercer
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Mercer
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
58.1% (823)
-19.3%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
56.2% (265)
-20.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
62.9% (35)
-12.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +20.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Mercer shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Mercer
Hertl
Home
34.7% (144)
59.7% (561)
Away
43.2% (146)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Mercer
Hertl
P1
32.7%
51.6%
P2
42.7%
63.8%
P3
42.2%
58.6%
Final 5 min
39.2%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 10:06 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 2 | 08:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |