Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +15.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Malgin wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malgin 40.8% vs Tavares 54.4% (-15.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malgin 74.1%
Defensive zone
Malgin 73.1%
Neutral zone
Malgin 77.5%
Result
Denis Malgin favored at 73.5%
73.5%
26.5%
Malgin
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Malgin
Tavares
Last 8: Malgin 2-6 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malgin
2
1
Malgin
Tavares
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
5
Malgin
Tavares
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malgin
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
38.9% (535)
54.0% (16,108)
-15.1%
Power Play
42.9% (28)
56.5% (4,283)
-13.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
50.6% (620)
-0.6%
On even strength, Tavares has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Malgin is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (410).
Malgin shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,535).
Home / Away
Malgin
Tavares
Home
37.4% (273)
56.1% (10,503)
Away
40.9% (298)
52.7% (10,537)
By Period
Malgin
Tavares
P1
37.2%
55.0%
P2
39.0%
54.1%
P3
40.7%
54.1%
OT
100.0%
55.9%
Final 5 min
43.0%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malgin
44.0%▲
40.5%
39.2%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2023 | 2 | 18:38 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 2 | 11:22 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 2 | 07:59 | Offensive | Denis Malgin |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 2 | 07:53 | Offensive | Denis Malgin |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 2 | 01:24 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 30, 2018 | 1 | 03:46 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 11, 2017 | 1 | 17:37 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 12, 2016 | 3 | 05:34 | Defensive | John Tavares |