Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Grant wins 54.7% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Grant 52.2% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 13-3 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Grant 60.6%
Defensive zone
Grant 92.5%
Neutral zone
Grant 75.7%
Result
Derek Grant favored at 76.4%
76.4%
23.6%
Grant
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
13
(16 meetings)
3
13
Grant
Pavelski
Last 10: Grant 2-8 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
7
Grant
Pavelski
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
4
Grant
Pavelski
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Grant
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Grant
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (2,864)
53.6% (8,791)
+0.1%
Power Play
61.7% (175)
58.2% (2,122)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
46.0% (922)
50.9% (1,138)
-4.9%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Grant is 54.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,349).
Grant shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Grant
Pavelski
Home
54.3% (1,956)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
50.2% (2,005)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Grant
Pavelski
P1
51.1%
53.5%
P2
51.5%
55.2%
P3
54.3%
53.9%
OT
35.7%
52.3%
Final 5 min
54.0%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
52.2%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2022 | 3 | 02:57 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 11:33 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 1 | 08:11 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 3 | 06:34 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 17:34 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 00:09 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 1 | 07:07 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 1 | 09:19 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 1 | 16:56 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 1 | 06:15 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 4, 2017 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 4, 2017 | 3 | 16:31 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Nov 4, 2017 | 1 | 18:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 27, 2013 | 2 | 15:06 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 27, 2013 | 2 | 11:16 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 27, 2013 | 2 | 02:11 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |