Scouting Report
Derek Grant holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Patrick on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Grant wins 54.7% vs right-shot opponents — Patrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Grant 52.2% vs Patrick 51.0% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Patrick leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Patrick 80.2%
Defensive zone
Grant 72.1%
Neutral zone
Patrick 60.9%
Result
Nolan Patrick favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Grant
Patrick
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Grant
Patrick
Last 10: Grant 3-7 Patrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Patrick
0
2
Grant
Patrick
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Patrick
1
3
Grant
Patrick
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Grant
Patrick
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Grant
Patrick
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (2,864)
50.6% (1,978)
+3.1%
Power Play
61.7% (175)
57.5% (120)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
46.0% (922)
57.7% (26)
-11.7%
On penalty kill, Patrick has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Patrick shoots right. Grant is 54.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,349).
Grant shoots left. Patrick is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,441).
Home / Away
Grant
Patrick
Home
54.3% (1,956)
49.7% (1,106)
Away
50.2% (2,005)
52.5% (1,018)
By Period
Grant
Patrick
P1
51.1%
52.9%
P2
51.5%
49.1%
P3
54.3%
51.3%
OT
35.7%
40.0%
Final 5 min
54.0%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
52.2%
Patrick
36.0%▼
49.5%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2019 | 3 | 11:54 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 3 | 07:10 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 3 | 07:57 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Oct 24, 2017 | 1 | 17:53 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Oct 24, 2017 | 1 | 13:49 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Oct 24, 2017 | 1 | 09:43 | Neutral | Derek Grant |
| Oct 24, 2017 | 1 | 09:35 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Oct 7, 2017 | 2 | 13:09 | Neutral | Derek Grant |
| Oct 7, 2017 | 1 | 16:27 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Oct 7, 2017 | 1 | 07:48 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |