Scouting Report
Andrew Shaw holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Shaw wins 55.7% vs left-shot opponents — MacKenzie shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Shaw 53.7% vs MacKenzie 50.0% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Shaw 76.4%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 85.8%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 57.6%
Result
Andrew Shaw favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Shaw
MacKenzie
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Shaw
MacKenzie
Last 9: Shaw 3-6 MacKenzie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
1
2
Shaw
MacKenzie
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
0
1
Shaw
MacKenzie
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
2
3
Shaw
MacKenzie
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Shaw
MacKenzie
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (336)
52.5% (564)
+3.8%
Power Play
51.0% (96)
77.8% (9)
-26.8%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
41.7% (199)
-25.0%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +26.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKenzie shoots left. Shaw is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (309).
Shaw shoots right. MacKenzie is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (305).
Home / Away
Shaw
MacKenzie
Home
58.1% (234)
52.7% (404)
Away
50.5% (204)
47.0% (368)
By Period
Shaw
MacKenzie
P1
53.8%
50.0%
P2
58.3%
50.0%
P3
52.0%
49.4%
OT
33.3%
80.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Shaw
52.0%▲
48.5%
54.6%
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2017 | 3 | 10:28 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Apr 3, 2017 | 3 | 07:42 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Apr 3, 2017 | 1 | 15:42 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Apr 3, 2017 | 1 | 15:27 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Apr 3, 2017 | 1 | 08:58 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 30, 2017 | 2 | 18:22 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Mar 30, 2017 | 2 | 13:26 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 30, 2017 | 2 | 03:39 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Mar 30, 2017 | 1 | 10:04 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |